Theo’s Picks: UFC Vegas 64 Betting Breakdown

With last weekends card falling under expectation, we dust ourselves off and get going for this weekends UFC Vegas 64 card. Atop of the card are two women looking to become next in line for a title shot at 115lbs. Marina Rodriguez is now nine fights into her UFC tenure, with two, yes two, draws. The vicious, Lemos, is only one behind with eight, with four coming by finish.

The great stat-man, Andy Hickey (@AndyHickeyMMA), brought to the fans’ attention earlier this week, that 13 of the last 14 female main events in the UFC have gone to a decision. With this set to be Rodriguez’s third main event spot, and only Lemos’ second, the aforementioned, Rodriguez, holds the slight experience advantage.

Having said that, let’s take a look at my picks/bets for this weekends card. As always, this is not financial, nor betting advice, it is purely for fun. If you like my picks/bets then do with them what you will.

SINGLES

Coming into the weekend, we lost some bouts that could’ve made for extremely fun viewing. The original headline of Bryce Mitchell vs Movsar Evloev fell through after the latter withdrew due to injury. Not only that but the card lost rising star, Jailton Almeida, someone a lot of fans are hot on.

On the opposite side of the spectrum is my first pick, Ramona Pascual by decision (+210). It’s a fight a lot of punters are avoiding, but at such enticing + money, I couldn’t leave it alone. After watching tape on these two women, there is no doubt in my mind that Pascual is the more superior striker. Tamires Vidal looks to load up with big shots rather than working her way into range. During her fight with Martina Jindrova, she consistently telegraphed a big overhead that didn’t land once, and utilised an average grappling game. Ramona on the flip side is an experienced striker who will look to keep Vidal out of big shot range. I envision a fight in which Vidal tries to load up on her big shots while trying to utilise her grappling, which could play into Pascual’s hands, as it may allow for her to do her work from a distance, utilising leg kicks to her advantage.

Darrick Minner takes on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke in a featherweight bout. One in which he is a moderate underdog. Despite that, Minner has faced several tough opponents not only in recent outings, but throughout his 39 fight career. Sometimes, you just have to let the numbers do the work. Darrick Minner has scored 22 submission wins in 26 professional wins, with wins over the likes of Terrance McKinney, Charles Rosa and Clay Collard. If you don’t like the Minner by sub play at +375, then maybe you take Minner as a moneyline dog at +175. But do be warned, if Minner gets it done, don’t be surprised if he snatches another neck.

Just quickly running through the remaining picks, I have taken Tagir Ulanbekov at moneyline -220 as I believe this to be one of the clearer locks of the night. Nate Maness has fought at the height of 155lbs before, and with this being his first cut down to 125lbs, I didn’t fancy the risk of the unknown. Not only that, but Ulanbekov is a grinding wrestler who will put Maness’ gas-tank into question. I would certainly argue that Maness’ strength of schedule trumps that of his counterpart, but the weight factor weighed too heavy on my pick.

Talking of grinding wrestlers, I’ve taken Mark Madsen via decision at +150. He’s not nicknamed “The Olympian” for no reason. Madsen has competed in 3 olympic games, picking up a Silver medal in the 2016 games, outlining how dominant he is when it comes to that side of Mixed Martial Arts. Dawson is no slouch and he stands as Madsen’s toughest live test so far.

Daniel Rodriguez at + money was something I had to take, despite it being a relatively quick turnaround from his last outing back in September. Magny of course holds the advantage in the grappling department, but if this fight stays on the feet, I can see “D-Rod’s” boxing really taking over.

PARLAYS

Last week, the fall from grace in one of the parlays was due to the extremely unfortunate circumstance in the main event. But we put that behind us, and fire back with another duo of parlays.

Miranda Maverick by finish is something I’ve gone back and fourth with for days. The young prospect has had some things go against her so far in her UFC tenure. Her bout with Maycee Barber could’ve gone either way, and I personally think she was unfortunate to come off on the wrong end of the decision. Off the back of that she was matched up with Erin Blanchfield who is an extremely tough fight for the majority of the women’s flyweight division. Meandering back to this bout, Miranda has already scored a submission win over Young in their Invicta days. I personally believe “Fear The” Maverick is better than Young, anywhere this fight may go.

Jinh Yu Frey and Polyana Viana throw down in another women’s bout on the night. In 5 UFC fights, Jinh Yu Frey has gone to 4 decisions. The submission specialist, Viana, on the other-hand does pose a threat from exactly that, which would be my only worry during this fight.

Neil Magny is as grinding as fighters get. His relentless gas-tank and multitude of weapons make him a tough puzzle for anyone. Rodriguez though is as crisp a boxer as they come. During his UFC tenure so far, he has consistently had changes of opponents. I believe we are yet to see the best of “D-Rod” despite what we’ve seen so far being extremely exciting. Magny’s toughness will keep him in this fight for what I believe to be the full 15 minutes, but edging on the safer side, I have picked for this fight to go over 1.5 rounds (-420).

This weekend for UFC Vegas 64, the bulk of my value is in my single picks with all but 1 being + money. With that in mind, my parlays play on the safer side of things, as opposed to last weekend when all that was needed for my +411 parlay to land was Allen and Kattar to go over 2.5 rounds. However, that hasn’t deterred me from picking the over and under this weekend.

The first selection of parlay 2 is Mario Bautista to win (-305). The 29-year-old picked up a hugely impressive win in his last outing over Brian Kelleher, and throughout his career, has faced some of the top opponents at 135. Benito Lopez, his opponent, is coming back from a 3 year lay off. To come back from that long off, and to go in against a promising contender in Bautista, is an extremely tough ask.

Going back to picking the over/under, I have taken Ulanbekov/Maness to go over 1.5 rounds (-400) as my 2nd leg. I expect Tagir to utilise his highly dominant wrestling in this one, with Maness’ weight cut playing a big role in how this one culminates. Moving down in weight could take a lot out of Maness’, who as I previously mentioned, has fought at 155lbs in his career.

The final leg of my 2nd parlay will ride on Marina Rodriguez’s ability to grind on Amanda Lemos and take the fight to deep waters. I have taken Rodriguez to win and the fight to go over 3.5 rounds (+117), as the selection that beefs up this parlay. Going back to the stat mentioned at the start of this piece, women’s main events just love going to a decision. There is no doubt that Lemos has the ability to finish this fight with her threat in submissions and the power she possesses, but I believe Marina Rodriguez to be the more well-rounded of the two, and can see her cruising her way to a decision victory.

Let me know what you think of my selections over on Twitter (@JamieTheoMMA)!