Theo’s Picks: UFC Orlando Betting Breakdown

This coming Saturday, UFC touches down in Orlando for the first time in three years, as UFC veteran, Stephen Thompson, takes on ‘Big Mouth’, Kevin Holland in the nights main event. As well as that Welterweight showing, the rest of the card stacks up to be one of the better UFC Fight Night cards we’ve seen, at least this year.

Let’s take a look at what bets I have put together for this blockbuster card. As always, this isn’t betting or financial advice, it is just for some fun.

SINGLES

My first pick of the night comes in the featherweight division, and it is banking on there being some 145lb violence. Jonathan Pearce returns to the Octagon for the third time this year, as he takes on a featherweight regular, Darren Elkins. This will mark Elkins’ 27th UFC fight in a career that spans back all the way to 2010. Pearce is riding a four fight winning streak, and since his first loss under the UFC banner, has gone unbeaten. Elkins on the other hand is coming towards the backend of his tough career. I believe this bout will see youthfulness prevail, with Pearce taking another win, and I see him doing it under 2.5 rounds, despite Elkins’ reputation for being extremely durable. To ride slightly on the safe side, instead of taking a winner here, I am taking this fight to go under 2.5 rounds as my first single play at -150.

Then missing quite a few bouts on the way to my second pick, comes Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze. Of course, the aforementioned, Hermansson, was scheduled to take on Derek Brunson, however, Brunson withdrew from the bout a few weeks prior. Stepping in is standout striker, Dolidze. The Georgian fought as recently as late October, and is stepping in on short notice, despite the short lay off. In his last outing, he won emphatically against Phil Hawes, who suffered a leg injury during their fight, and finds himself on a nice three fight winning streak. On the other side sits Hermansson, who fought back at UFC London in July, again, facing a late change in opponent, Chris Curtis. In that fight, Hermansson exhibited an unexpected side of his game, opting to come in and strike with Chris Curtis. This of course being because of Chris Curtis’ insane takedown defence (100%). Dolidze though, doesn’t boast an as impressive takedown defence rate (33%), with the sample size being an extra fight at six as opposed to Curtis’ five UFC fights. Having said that, Hermansson himself doesn’t boast a significantly impressive takedown success rate, and only attempts 1.57 takedowns per 15 minutes. With Dolidze being the superior striker in this matchup, and with it being late notice, I envisage Hermansson getting his wrestling game going and edging through a close decision victory at +137.

The fight I personally am most looking forward to is what I have picked next. Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich. Two stand and bang heavyweights near the top of their division. What more could you ask for? Of course, the likelihood of this fight ending in a KO is very high, and for the fight to NOT go the distance, you can only get odds of -700, making it in my case, not worth it. It then led me to decide who I really think will win this fight, and I made the decision, taking into consideration the value, Tuivasa.

Taking Tuivasa as a straight bet at +175 could be a value play, but it is almost certainly going to end in a finish. Tuivasa by TKO/KO is my third play of the evening at +220.

Flyweight unders are something that have become quite the theme in MMA betting. I’m going to ride with the wave this weekend, and I’ll be taking Nicolau/Schnell under 2.5 rounds at +100. Schnell missed weight on his first attempt, cutting his hair shortly after, to ensure he made the 126lb limit. Nicolau goes to a decision more often than not, with his last four fights going to the scorecards. Schnell got involved in one of the fights of the year in his last outing, coming from behind to secure a finish in what was one of the greatest comeback wins ever witnessed inside the Octagon. On paper it may look like an unusual pick, however, sometimes you just have to go with your incline.

My final single pick of the night leads to the bright lights of the main event, the two men in which this card was built around. This will mark Thompson’s first fight in a year, with his last outing being a decision loss to Belal Muhammad. Kevin Holland’s adventures continue. A decision to retire after his last outing, which unfortunately for him, succeeded to be against Khamzat Chimaev, led him to quickly turn that decision around, and jump back in there just three months later.

Holland was originally scheduled to take on fellow striker, Daniel Rodriguez, last time out, but ended up being thrown a completely opposite style in Chimaev. “Big Mouth” finally gets the striking affair he’s craved this weekend taking on the 39-year-old Karate specialist. I envisage this fight going into the main event rounds, despite both men wanting to keep the fight standing. Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Holland try and get some grappling going. I’m taking this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -138.

PARLAYS

Having only placed five single picks, parlays are where i’m hoping will prove profitable this weekend. The first leg of parlay 1 stands on a Yazmin Jauregui win. The 23-year-old is someone i’m extremely high on, and am excited to see how her career proceeds. She is taking on a former ONE championship title challenger in Istela Nunes, and a win over the Brazilian will push her into stride for something spectacular. I think the former Combate Global champion will be able to control this fight on the feet, and will be able to cruise her way to a decision victory, however, i’m taking her to just win.

Fight fans will say goodbye to yet another legend this weekend, as Clay Guida says farewell, ending his 59 fight career. Unfortunately though, I don’t see Guida going out on a win, despite Holtzman’s inactivity. Guida is going to control this fight against the cage, but I see Holtzman being able to catch him in the exchanges that they will undoubtedly have to have.

Going back to the blockbuster heavyweight scrap, as mentioned before, I don’t think this fight is going to last very long, at all. Because of that, my final leg of parlay 1 will ride on Tuivasa/Pavlovich going under 1.5 rounds.

The second parlay begins in the lightweight division, and the fight between Levy and Valdez. Natan Levy’s first two UFC outings have both gone to a decision, whereas Valdez’s have both been finished. Valdez holds an exciting striking style and will come out swinging. I believe he is going to get Levy into a striking match despite Levy’s wants leaning on getting the fight to the ground. I am taking this fight NOT to go the distance as the first leg to kick off parlay 2.

Marc Diakiese has recently revisited his wrestling roots, picking up decision wins in his last two fights. Combined in those two fights, he landed 19 takedowns out of 29 attempts, dismissing the style that led to fans being excited for his fights. Having said that, now that he has got back into the winning column and has proved he deserves to be fighting under the UFC banner, we may see his signature striking make another appearance. No matter where this fight goes, I think Diakiese’s overwhelming arsenal of skills, will be enough to pick up the win over Michael Johnson, and that’s what i’m taking.

The final leg of parlay 2 will come down to whether or not we see violence in the welterweight bout between Price and Rowe. When Niko Price fights, violence is guaranteed. Despite his durability, he is completely susceptible to getting into an all out brawl. In nine professional wins, Rowe has never done it by way of decision. Sometimes, the sheer look of a line can influence a pick, and in this case, I believed the line of -175 for this fight to go under 2.5 rounds, was too good to pass up on.

Let me know what you think of the picks, and of course, what pick you have made for a phenomenal night in Orlando.