UFC 292: Sterling vs O’Malley – Preview

Boston, Massachusetts will play host to UFC 292, the MMA leader’s first event in the city in almost four years. The headlining bout is a long-awaited bantamweight championship contest that is set to shake up the entire division. Champion Aljamain Sterling will look to set the record for title defenses at 135lbs, but standing in his way will be flashy striker Sean O’Malley.

Let’s take a closer look at this card!

Note: all odds were taken from ESPN and are accurate, as of the time of writing.

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(c) Aljamain Sterling (23-3) vs (#2) Sean O’Malley (16-1, 1 NC) – UFC bantamweight championship bout

Bantamweight gold is on the line between the defending champion and one of the division’s biggest stars in the main event.

In spite of the flack given to him by fans, Aljamain Sterling is one of the most accomplished 135lb fighters in the history of the UFC. His three consecutive title defenses currently tie for first position with Renan Barao, with this weekend’s bout providing an opportunity for him to be the lone champion atop the mountain. Sterling’s unorthodox approach to striking often puzzles his opponents. His wrestling ability is the game-changer, however. The two-time NCAA D3 All-American has proven to be a better grappler than virtually everyone he has ever faced, and fans are expecting no different in this matchup. ‘Funkmaster’ enters this bout as a sizable -250 favourite, the largest of any of his title fights.

The MMA community have been watching the rise of Sean O’Malley since his Contender Series appearance in 2017. He predicted that his career would lead him to the title, which he sits on the door of now. His last outing against former champion Petr Yan showed that the Montana native has the heart to slug it out for three full rounds at the highest level and earned him plenty of support. As a striker, O’Malley prefers to keep his opponents at range, where he utilises his natural advantages to pick shots at will. His hand speed, in particular, causes issues for everyone he’s paired up with. The aforementioned Yan fight showed that he can defend himself on the mat, but he hasn’t showcased anything that would mean he will be able to compete with the likes of Sterling. For only the second time in his UFC career, ‘Suga’ Sean is the underdog.

ODDS: (c) Sterling (-250), O’Malley (+205)

(c) Zhang Weili (23-3) vs (#4) Amanda Lemos (13-2-1) – UFC strawweight championship bout

China’s most dominant force will hope to kick off her second title reign with a bang against a hard-hitting Brazilian challenger.

The path to strawweight gold goes through China once again, with Zhang Weili firmly on the throne. Her most recent win, which saw her reclaim the title from Carla Esparza with a finish, has proven that she is, without a doubt, the best 115lb fighter in the world. That fight showcased Weili’s improved grappling, with her takedown defense and submission skills taking the spotlight. This fight will likely not hit the mat, however. If this particular title matchup does stay on the feet, as expected, Weili is an explosive striker with pinpoint accuracy. Her knockout power has taken the likes of Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk from conciousness, the latter of which came from a spinning backfist. Striking arsenals don’t get as diverse as Weili’s in this division. ‘Magnum’ enters this title defense at over 1/3.

Having only dropped one loss since her debut, Amanda Lemos has built a reputation as a hard-hitting action fighter capable of shutting the lights out on anyone. The Brazilian now has the chance to add the moniker of UFC champion to her status. In seven promotional wins, Lemos has never been reluctant to chase a finish, getting them more often than she doesn’t. Her submissions of Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Miranda Granger show that she can hold her on in the jiu-jitsu side of the equation, but she fancies herself more of a striker than anything else. The knockout of Marina Rodriguez, for example, is a prime example of her punching power and killer instinct. Even with all of that in mind, the oddsmakers have the 36 year old as a sizable underdog coming into this fight.

ODDS: (c) Weili (-320), Lemos (+250)

(#11) Neil Magny (28-10) vs (#13) Ian Machado Garry (13-0) – welterweight bout

A battle-tested staple of the welterweight division looks to hold off a surging Irish force in the feature bout of UFC 292.

It was a short notice call to action for Neil Magny, but he will be ready to spoil the show in Boston. His ten year tenure with the UFC has seen him gather more welterweight wins than anybody else in history. Even at 36 years old, Magny feels that he still has time to progress into title contention. The strongest areas of the New Yorker’s game come with his grappling, particularly his clinch game. His long frame allow him to keep opponents pinned to the cage with his weight, giving him ample time to look for takedowns or strikes. The grappling of Machado Garry has not been tested at the highest level, so it could be an area that Magny can exploit. ‘The Haitian Sensation’ currently sits as an underdog, but he is always capable of pulling out a win.

The UFC career of Ian Machado Garry has only improved with each fight. The former Cage Warriors champion has progressed massively since his promotional debut in 2021, now finding himself in the top fifteen rankings. Following his last win, the Irishman called for a bout with Magny, which he will now get the opportunity to capitalise on. Machado Garry’s striking has proven to be some of the most effective in the division. His combination punching, coupled with natural speed and power, mean that he can attack the opponent with lethal efficiency. Machado Garry has had a height advanatage over all of opponents to date, which he can use to aid his defense. Magny, however, matches his 6’3″ stature. It will be interesting to see if ‘The Future’ can continue to evolve and perform as masterfully against his toughest test to date.

ODDS: Magny (+140), Machado Garry (-165)

(#6) Marlon Vera (20-8-1) vs (#9) Pedro Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC) – bantamweight bout

A pair of the most violent contenders at 135lbs square off in the main card opener.

The four-fight win streak of Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera came to a halt in his last outing with Cory Sandhagen, but the Ecuadorian is keen to get back on track at UFC 292. He has improved technically in the past two years. adopting a more patient approach that allows him to compete better across the full distance of a fight. Once he kicks into high gear, however, ‘Chito’ is a wrecking machine that cuts, slices and brutalises whoever is standing in front of him. His grappling is something of a weak spot that has been exploited in the past, but Munhoz isn’t likely to shoot for takedowns. The bookies have ‘Chito’ favoured to pick up a win and his latest runs of form are a testament to that.

Much like ‘Chito’, Brazil’s Pedro Munhoz has built his name as an action fighter with no quit in hin. He has been a mainstay of the bantamweight top ten for almost half a decade now. He made a successful return to the cage earlier this year after suffering a corneal abrassion, halting the unbeaten streak of Chris Gutierrez in the process. Munhoz has a propensity for finishing fights via guillotine, but he is just as likely to trade punches and fire off leg kicks. If any of those strikes should connect, it’s safe to say that his opponents find themselves in hot water. ‘The Young Punisher’, somewhat inconsistent in the past few years, sits at +155, as of writing.

ODDS: Vera (-180), Munhoz (+155)

Chris Weidman (15-6) vs Brad Tavares (19-9) – middleweight bout

The long road to recovery comes to a head for a former titlist against a game Hawaiian veteran.

Over two years of injury rehabilitation have kept Chris Weidman on the sidelines since his leg break at UFC 261. The former champion, now back to full health, has the idea of recapturing gold at the forefront of his mind. His background as an All-American wrestler makes him a tricky opponent for anyone in the division. His striking, meanwhile, is definitely up to par, but there are limited instances in which it has brought him straight to victory. It would make far more sense, to me, for Weidman to use his striking to open up takedown opportunities. From there, he can keep top control or work for submissions. Given the horrific nature of his injury, ‘The All-American’ is entering this fight as a +210.

A scrapper through and through, Brad Tavares never shies away from a fight. The Hawaiian is now in his thirteenth year in the promotion, where he has racked up a reputation as a capable competitor that has earned his stripes. Tavares doesn’t shine in any one area; rather, he’s able to hang with his opponents in all areas of the game, wearing them down over the course of the fifteen minute distance. In this fight with Weidman, it seems right to keep this one on the feet, given his opponent’s wrestling pedigree. This matchup serves as the best chance for the perenial contender to put his experience in swinging leather to good use. Hilo’s Tavares comes into the bout as a favourite.

ODDS: Weidman (+210), Tavares (-260)

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